The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday, as there is no real clarity at the moment. Keep in mind that crude oil moves on a lot of different reasons, not the least of which is going to be the fact that OPEC has cut production by 2 million barrels per day. That does provide a little bit of a floor the market, but at the same time there are a lot of concerns out there about global demand.
Further clouding the picture is the fact that the US government has suggested that it was willing to buy crude oil at $80 a barrel to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which of course had initially been filled at about $9 a barrel. Ultimately, this is a market will continue to be very noisy, therefore I think you’re probably more likely than not going to see a situation where we are chopping back and forth on short-term moves, and therefore I think you got a scenario where there is a lot of volatility.
The market breaking down below the $80 level could open up a huge flush lower, but I think even then, the downside is probably somewhat limited just due to the fact that we have seen so much in the way of destruction.At this point, the market will be looking at the 50-Day EMA above as potential resistance, so if we were to break above that level, it would obviously be very bullish.In the meantime, I think there’s so much confusion that is difficult to get overly aggressive in one direction or the other, and most traders will probably be trading this on short-term charts to show small profits here and there. Unless you have the ability to watch the market all day, it’s probably going to be difficult to get overly exposed.
Keep in mind that the global slowdown is going to be a major problem, because it will bring down demand. However, it’s likely that we will see choppiness increase, not decrease as there is so much in the way of confusion globally. Adding more confusion to the mix is trying to figure out what’s going to happen with Russian oil this winter as sanctions continue.