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USD/TRY: Long Term Trend Upwards Meets Short Term Resistance – 15 August 2022

The USD/TRY remains mired within a long term bullish ride upwards, as Turkish economic policy remains mismanaged.

The USD/TRY remains within sight of the 18.0000 mark. The past week of trading has seen the USD/TRY currency pair within sight of the important ratio several times, but has not quite been able to topple the mark. However, speculators who are capable of holding long term positions may remain happily bullish as they pursue the trajectory upwards. Unfortunately for the citizens of Turkey a serious amount of fiscal mismanagement has led to the demise of the Turkish Lira.


Long Road Ahead Remains Troublesome for USD/TRY as Politics Impede

Turkish leadership largely remains within the grip of President Erdogan. His decisions and interventions within the fiscal policies of the Turkish central bank have certainly had a negative effect on the USD/TRY over the long term. If a five year chart is looked at by traders the path upwards is evident. The weakness of the USD/TRY cannot be blamed on sudden geopolitics which is inflamed via Turkey’s neighbors of Ukraine and Russia.

No, the President of Turkey has acted with a solid grip which sometimes calls into question his motives regarding interest rates, inflation and practical economic theory for many years. Until better policy comes from Turkey, the USD/TRY will remain in an upwards trajectory. For speculators this means they will likely want to remain buyers of the Forex pair and take advantage of moves higher.

While sudden spikes downwards in the USD/TRY certainly occur, price action is by and large upwards but sometimes runs into stiff resistance. The past week has demonstrated these results.Current resistance near the 18.00000 is likely to prove vulnerable, but the question is when it will be vanquished.

All the King’s Horses and Men Cannot Not Put the USD/TRY Together Again

Speculators who pursue the USD/TRY must take into consideration overnight charges, spreads between bids and asks, and understand any other charges which might be seen if they want to trade the currency pair. Upwards price action in the USD/TRY makes it a dynamic forex pair to pursue. However it is not easy, entry price orders must be used and stop losses are needed to protect against sudden spikes downward.

Buying the USD/TRY on slight dips in price seems like a legitimate wager. Risk taking tactics need to be used dynamically. Traders must be prepared to hold positions overnight in case resistance levels prove durable like they have the past week. Quick hitting trades may be frequently impossible because of the total expense of putting a USD/TRY position on, meaning too much leverage might be needed to make a quick wager that produces results, and this could lead to massive losses. Unless a trader has deep pockets and a long term timeframe, the USD/TRY may be better watched instead of being traded.

Turkish Lira Short-Term Outlook

Current Resistance: 19.97000

Current Support: 17.90000

High Target: 18.10000

Low Target: 17.82000

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