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USD/TRY: Flirtation with New Apex Highs is a Constant Theme – 15 September 2022

Aiming for upside price action is likely a worthwhile bet on the USD/TRY, but traders need to understand their time parameters and risk metrics


The USD/TRY is trading near historic apex highs as its rather long term consistent bullish trend remains intact.

The USD/TRY is trading near the 18.26000 mark as of this morning, but it remains still below this juncture. The price for the USD/TRY currency pair remains locked into a long term bullish trend. Technical and fundamental speculators likely agree on many aspects of the USD/TRY trajectory. The value of the USD/TRY was near 3.40000 in the last week of September 2017. The constant bullishness of the USD/TRY has not been a good outcome for Turkey.

Correlations to the U.S Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy is a Secondary Consideration

The USD/TRY is an important currency pair because of the amount of export the nation of Turkey conducts. However, rather questionable fiscal policy within Turkey has led to the Turkish Lira losing a rather consistent amount of value. The value of the USD/TRY was nearly 8.20000 only one year ago.

In November of last year, more dramatic political and economic policies began to take place which global financial houses interpreted as unfavorable intervention decisions. The USD/TRY climbed to a high of nearly 18.26000 on the 20th of December last year temporarily, but by December the 27th of 2021 the Forex pair was back to a vicinity of 10.80000 momentarily. Yes, this is the value the USD/TRY is battling now.

Interest rate hikes from the U.S central bank have helped the USD/TRY bullish trend, another factor is the Russian/Ukrainian war, but Turkish fiscal policy is likely the main culprit.Resistance for the USD/TRY is theoretical as new highs are achieved often, but traders need to understand reversals lower do occur too.

Trading the USD/TRY is not easy and Speculators need to Understand Costs of Transactions

While it might be tempting to buy the USD/TRY blindly and look for upwards movement, traders need to understand the currency pair does trade in a range which produces reversals lower too. The costs of holding the USD/TRY overnight differs depending on the Forex broker and traders should asks what the fees are in total for pursuing wagers. Entry price orders are essential too with the USD/TRY because it has the habit of creating sudden spikes in all directions which can prove painful and costly.

Support for the USD/TRY appears to be near the 18.20500 mark, but the currency pair has traded near 18.17000 also in spurts. Aiming for upside price action is likely a worthwhile bet on the USD/TRY, but traders need to understand their time parameters and risk metrics. If a move upwards in the USD/TRY is not generated in the short term, it could prove costly to wait for anticipated results which may take a few days. There are no guarantees the USD/TRY is going to continue to rise constantly, but the long term trend is rather dramatic and bullish behavior has been predominant.

Turkish Lira Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 18.26000

Current Support: 18.23800

High Target: 18.33000

Low Target: 18.20100

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