TRY/USD Forecast: The Stability of the TRY near its Lowest Level Ever – 20 March 2023
The pair maintained the general bullish trend, with the pair failing to register any closure outside the levels of the bullish channel on the time frame of the day, as well.
The risk is 0.50%.
Entering a buy order pending order from the 18.90 level.Place a stop loss point to close below the support level at 18.65.Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 19.00.Entering a sell order pending order from the 19.50 level.The best points to place a stop loss close at the 19.65 level.Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips, and leave the rest of the contracts until the 19.05 support level.
The TRY/USD settled near its all-time low, which was recorded during the past week. Investors followed reports issued during the weekend showing signs of abandonment by the ruling party and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, of the possibility of abandoning the unconventional monetary policy that he has been following for some time. The policy is based on lowering the interest rate to increase manufacturing and production operations and raise the volume of exports and thus increase in the volume of cash imports from foreign exchange, which will arrange to Reduce inflation.
It seems that the aforementioned monetary policy did not bear fruit, as the country suffered from record inflation levels at the end of last year, which reached 85% last November, before recording several declines over the following months. The Turkish president and the ruling party are facing a fateful election, which some experts describe as the most difficult electoral entitlement Erdogan has faced in the past 20 years, a period he has presided over the executive authority in the country for some two months. It is noteworthy that the grip of the Central Bank has gradually eased on fixing the price of the lira, as the lira has declined over the past few weeks, to record levels of decline, especially after the volume of foreign reserves in the country was affected following the devastating earthquake that struck the southwest of the country during the past month.
On the technical front, the USD/TRY varied during the day’s early trading, as the pair traded near its all-time high, recording 19.11. The pair maintained the general bullish trend, with the pair failing to register any closure outside the levels of the bullish channel on the time frame of the day, as well. The pair formed a rising wedge pattern on the daily time frame. With the pair’s upward movement continuing at a slow pace, the USD/TRY is trading above the support levels of 18.90, 18.80, and 18.70, respectively. The pair is also trading below the resistance levels at 19.00 and 19.11, which represents the highest price for the pair ever, as well as the pair is trading below the psychological resistance levels at 19.50. The pair is trading above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the time frame of today, in a sign of the general bullish trend on the large time frame, while the price is trading between these moving averages on the 60-minute time frame, in a sign of the slow movement of the pair. Any fall of the USD/TRY represents an opportunity to buy back again. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.
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