S&P 500 Forecast: Drifts a Bit Lower for Wednesday – 02 March 2023

During Wednesday’s trading session, the S&P 500 attempted to rally but quickly gave up its gains due to the prevailing negativity in the market.It’s expected that the market will continue to exhibit noisy behavior and concerns regarding spiking interest rates.As a result, the market is likely to experience more noise, and a drop from current levels seems more likely than not.Because of this, I continue to look for selling opportunities as they occur, but I also recognize that they will almost certainly be on short-term charts more than anything else.

The 3950 level is an area of interest for many people, and a break below that level could lead to a move down to 3900, which has previously provided support. A further breakdown below the 3900 level could open the possibility of a significant move down to 3800. Breaking below that level could trigger a massive move to the downside and accelerate the market’s decline.

The market could face significant trouble below 3800, potentially down to the major low of 3600. Additionally, the current earnings season is likely to cause significant volatility. Keep in mind that volatility tends to be negative for index pricing, as traders become hesitant to take on risk in such an environment.

Alternatively, if the market were to break above the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA above, it’s possible that we could see a move up to the 4100 level. However, this scenario seems less likely, and a “fade the rally” type of situation appears to be more probable going forward. The market is not expected to fall apart entirely, but a certain amount of negativity is likely to persist, and therefore, it’s important to view this through the prism of selling opportunities that may arise occasionally. I like fading signs of exhaustion as they occur, and therefore I don’t have any interest in buying. The market will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, so you should have more of an eye on short-term trading than anything else. The longer-term user probably can be hard to come by, just because of the massive amount of volatility that we see and of course the options markets playing a lot of games with the “zero day to expiration” options now. The manipulation is deep.

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