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S&P 500 Forecast: Continues to Form a Basing Pattern

The market will continue to be bearish, but no market goes in one direction forever as you know.

The S&P 500 has gone back and forth during the session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noise just below the 4000 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy behavior as we have no real driver of the markets right now. After all, the S&P 500 must worry about the interest rates rising in the United States and of course the concerns around the world with growth.


The S&P 500 has bounced from a major support level, and it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see a short-term recovery because we had been so oversold. The 50-Day EMA sits near the 4050 level therefore it does offer a little bit of a short-term resistance barrier. The market breaking above that level opens the possibility of a move to the 200-Day EMA, perhaps testing the 4200 level. I do not expect that to be the case though, because quite frankly there is a lot of risk aversion out there, and it would take quite a bit of momentum to get there. The candlestick is a little bit supportive but neutral, to say the least.

The 3900-level underneath could offer support, but if we were to break down below there, it’s likely that the market could drop down to the 3700 level.The 3700 level is an area where we have seen a lot of buying, and then after that, we have the 3600 level. At this point, it’s very likely that we will simply continue to fade rallies, and as we head into the weekend, I would be very cautious about the position sizing of this market, and I certainly would not be a buyer, at least not right now.After all, the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy continue to be very tight, thereby squeezing any real sense of growth.

Looking at this chart, I think it is only a matter of time before we get an opportunity to short this market, but right now it’s very likely that the market will need to breathe a bit, giving you an opportunity to short from higher levels. The market will continue to be bearish, but no market goes in one direction forever as you know.

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