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NZD/USD: Move Upwards as a Glimmer of Optimism Sparkles Sky – 19 October 2022

The NZD/USD has moved higher since last Thursday when the Forex pair hit a low of nearly 0.55125, which was a mark not seen since the height of coronavirus fears in March of 2020.


Although the NZD/USD has managed to gain in past handful of trading days, it remains within the lower spectrum of its long term technical values. As of this morning the NZD/USD currency pair is around the 0.56800 ratio with price action displaying its normal give and take. The momentum generated upwards the past few days of trading has come on wings of optimism as global equity indices have generated better results.

Fundamentally Inflation Remains a Concern and the NZD/USD is within a Bearish Grip

While the short term trend of the NZD/USD has certainly seen a polite climb from lows and may be enticing bullish speculators, there are no sure bets the higher move will continue. However, speculatively the notion the NZD/USD challenged long term lows not seen since the height of coronavirus chaos in March of 2020 and has reversed higher cannot be discounted.

Yes, New Zealand remains under the grip of inflationary pressures like all nations and the road ahead economically will be difficult, but short and mid-term considerations can be different. Short term traders do not have to believe that a sudden turn around regarding inflation has occurred to take advantage of the technical bullish run displayed the past few days. The question is if and when the upwards ticks in the NZD/USD will run out of gas. And this is a dangerous consideration.

Behavioral Sentiment may be the Key for the NZD/USD in the Short Term

Intriguingly after Consumer Price Index data from New Zealand came in higher with a result of a 2.2% gain yesterday, compared to the estimated rise of 1.5% the NZD/USD continued to get stronger. Financial houses may have been surprised by the stronger than expected inflation statistics, but perhaps they had already factored in higher interest rate strategy due to the U.S Federal Reserve remaining hawkish and continuing its threats of more hikes to come.

If the NZD/USD can maintain its current support levels of 0.56650 to 0.56600, this may cause some bullish speculation and wagers on the upside to challenge the 0.56850 to 0.56950 ratios.However, if support suddenly proves vulnerable a swift change of speculative attitude in the short term may be needed, because the NZD/USD could then target lows realms like the 0.56550 to 0.56400 junctures lower quickly.

The NZD/USD remains challenging because of the long term bearish trend. A few days of higher trading for the NZD/USD should not give traders the illusion that the bearish trajectory has seen its last days. Speculators who are focused on the short term need to practice solid risk taking tactics, and use entry price orders along with stop loss and take profit orders to wager in a positive manner.

NZD/USD Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 0.57070

Current Support: 0.56560

High Target: 0.57305

Low Target: 0.56150

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