Stocks in Asia struggled to gain traction and US equity futures fluctuated as negative sentiment persisted in markets amid fear that global central banks will keep hiking rates until inflation is tamed, raising the risk of a recession.
A bull Monday might be on the cards as we also have the new month start today, however overnight has been weak. The FTSE100 futures dropped down to 6780, just above the 6770 daily support – a level that we could see today. The 2h chart is also bearish to start with, and has resistance at 6853 initially.
I am thinking that we will get a kick up towards the daily pivot though at 6868 to start with, but could then see a drop off from there to the 6770, and possibly even the 6728 level, which is S2. That is also just above the next daily support level in play at 6718 so a bounce in this area would make sense.
If the bulls were to push above the 6868 level then 6900 is the next obvious target but the bulls will try and push for the 200ema/key fib at the 6940 level.
Meanwhile, if the bears were to push below the 6728 level then we start getting even more bearish – and the bottom of the Raff channels have moved down to the 6677 area – a level that it feels we could see soon!
That said, bear in mind the seasonality chart posted the other day – a bit more weakness into early October then the bulls start fighting back!
S&P500Again, looks weak to start with and hard a bearish 2h chart with resistance from the Hull MA at 3632. That nicely aligns with the 30m coral at 3635 so if we get a rise to this area we could see the bears reappear here. It still feels like shorting the rallies is the best play for the moment across the board. Above the 3635 level then 3666 is the next level of note with the 30m 200ema here, and just above thew top of the 10d Raff channel. A dip down to 3555 would be ok for a bounce here, though if that gets broken then 3521 S1 and the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel at 3456 (handy!) would start to loom into view.
So, possibly a rise dip rise day today on the cards. Good luck today.
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