Natural Gas Technical Analysis: The Price is Range Bound – 13 February 2023

Natural gas futures ended the week higher, supported by the cold weather that swept across the central and eastern United States. The March Nymex contract settled on Friday at $2.514 per million British thermal units, an increase of about 8.4 cents from Thursday’s close. April futures fell by 11.5 cents to $2.607.

Despite a temporary pickup in demand caused by wintry weather systems over parts of the country in the next few days. The warmer shift in the upcoming pattern could quickly pull prices back a few notches.

NatGasWeather said the global forecast system and European models are generally aligned with showing “light to very light” demand over the next week or so before the arrival of strong heating loads on February 17-19.

Meanwhile, US production remains strong with low estimates near 100 bcfd and higher-end estimates closer to 102 bcfd, the spotlight is still on producers for clues as to whether they are preventing production from rising further. This occurred due to increased storage surpluses and much cheaper gas prices.

Technically, the price is trying in its recent trades to compensate for some of its previous losses, amidst positive signals in the relative strength indicators. However, we notice that they have reached areas that are highly saturated with buying operations, in an exaggerated manner compared to the price movement.

This happened considering the dominance of the main bearish trend in the medium and short term along a main trend line. This is shown in the attached chart for a period (daily), with continued negative pressure for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50-day period.

Therefore, our expectations suggest that natural gas will decline during its upcoming trading, as long as the 3.098 resistance level remains stable, especially if it breaks the support level at 2.432, to then target the support level at 2.00.

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