NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Tech Index Looking Bearish, Likely to Test 200-Day EMA at 11900 – 13 February 2023
I think at this point, we are trying to determine whether or not we got a little overstretched.
After all, we had recently seen several shooting stars, so more confusion would be par for course. We are in the midst of earnings season, and that of course makes a huge difference as to where we go next. Breaking down below the 200-Day EMA would open up fresh selling, perhaps heading down to the 11,800 level, which is close to the 50-Day EMA. If we break down below that, then the bottom completely falls apart. It’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of volatility, and of course the occasional earnings announcement will rattle the markets. That being said, you should also pay close attention to volatility indices, as it could give us a heads up as well.
If we were to turn around and break above the 12,800 level, then we could open up the possibility of a move towards the 13,600 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noise around it, and of course the NASDAQ 100 is an index that is rather noisy under the best of circumstances. Because of this, I do believe that this situation calls for cautious position sizing, and I would not be aggressive at all until we see the market move in our direction, and then I would add quite a bit. Ultimately, this is a situation where we’ll see a lot of nosy behavior, therefore I think you have to be very cautious with the idea of how you build up the trade. It’s obvious that the NASDAQ 100 has been much more volatile than the S&P 500, so obviously you will have to position size accordingly in this market so that you don’t get run over. I think at this point, we are trying to determine whether or not we got a little overstretched.
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