NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Building Case for Higher Pricing – 18 July 2022
It’ll be interesting to see how this week plays out, because it’s likely that we will see the Federal Reserve raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points, if not 100.
The NASDAQ 100 rallied ever slightly Friday, as it looks like we are going to threaten the 50-day EMA. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is a little oversold and I think it would only be a matter of time before we could see a bit of selling pressure. That being said, anytime a market is overdone the way it has been lately, I think it does make sense that we would see buyers coming into this market and jumping all over any signs of weakness.
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The market will more likely than not see a lot of difficulty, but I think signs of exhaustion are coming. In the meantime, you will notice that we have been slightly turning higher, and I think we are getting to a point where we are trying to figure out where interest rates are going, and as they rise, it does work against the value of technology stocks. But recently, we have seen a lot of softening when it comes interest rates in the United States, so it makes sense that we have seen a little bit of a turnaround here. That being said, it is more likely than not going to be a short-term phenomenon, but right now it appears that the Federal Reserve is going to continue to be much more aggressive than people are giving it credit for at the moment.
It’ll be interesting to see how this week plays out, because it’s likely that we will see the Federal Reserve raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points, if not 100. Then people will start to focus solely on the statement coming out of the Federal Reserve, because it will have a lot to say about where they may go next. With that being the case, a lot of expectations would be priced into the market but in the short term it looks like we are going to try to break through the 50-day EMA, and perhaps go looking as high as the 13,000 level. I don’t know if we can go that high, but it certainly would be a potential target. On the downside, if we break down below the 11,500 level, then it’s possible that we could go down to the 11,200 level.
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