Gold Forecast: Boost From Perceived Fed Dovishness
In the short term it’s difficult to short this market.
The gold markets have rallied rather significantly for the second day in a row on hopes that the Federal Reserve is going to step back away from the tightening cycle. That being said, they also will have to pay close attention to the idea of inflation picking up, and therefore the Federal Reserve may the Titan regardless. This is a situation known as “stagflation.”
The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, so looks like we may have a little bit of follow-through for the short term. The $1750 level being broken is a good sign and will probably way on the US dollar in the short term. However, if we do break above there, then it’s possible that we could see this market go looking to the $1800 level. $1800 level was an area that previously had seen in an uptrend line, and of course the 50 Day EMA. In other words, at the first signs of exhaustion, it is likely that people will start shorting again.
If we were to break above the $1800 level, then it’s possible that we could see a potential trend change, as that would be a major turnaround. That being said, the market has recently bounced from the $1680 level, which is an area that has been important work for quite some time. As long as we can say above the $1680 level, then the market is likely to continue banging around in the same consolidation area it’s been forever.
On the other hand, if we were to break down below the $1680 level, that is likely that the bottom will fall out and gold will probably go looking to be $1500 level. Pay close attention to interest rates, because they are starting to fall, and that does help gold. If we see market rates turnaround in the bond market and start to spike again, that is very negative for gold. As things stand right now, it looks like the short-term momentum is most certainly to the outside, so I would not be surprised at all to see more follow-through from this point. Whether or not it continues as a completely different question from there, but I do think in the short term it’s difficult to short this market.
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