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EUR/USD Signal: Still Bearish After the Italian Election – 26 September 2022

The EUR/USD price continued falling as the strong US dollar continued its bullish trend. It crashed to a low of 0.9692, which was the lowest level in more than 20 years. The pair has dropped by more than 14.80% this year and by 15% from the highest level this year.

US dollar index rally continues

The EUR/USD price continued its bearish trend because of the rising US dollar. The dollar index continued surging and is currently sitting at the highest level in more than two decades. This increase continued last week after the latest interest rate decision by the Fed.

In its meeting, the Fed decided to hike interest rates by 0.75% for the second straight month. This means that it has become substantially more hawkish than the European Central Bank (ECB).

The pair continued falling as investors predict that the American economy will have a quicker recovery than that in Europe. In a statement on Sunday, Fed’s Raphael Bostic said that the US economy will slow down in a relatively orderly way.

Europe, on the other hand, is heading towards a recession as energy prices continue soaring. During the weekend, the head of TotalEnergies warned that European countries should prepare to pay more for gas as the crisis in Ukraine escalates.

The EUR/USD pair continued falling as Italians propelled Giorgia Meloni to become the prime minister following the recent resignation of Mario Draghi. Italy is closely watched by investors because it is the fourth biggest economy in the world.

The next key catalyst for the pair will be the upcoming Germany GDP numbers from Germany. Analysts expect that the country’s economy expanded by 1.8% in the second quarter. Germany will also publish the latest business expectations and current assessment. Christine Lagarde and other ECB central bankers will deliver statements.

EUR/USD forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the EUR/USD price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few weeks. It dropped to the third support of the standard pivot point. The pair has moved below all moving averages while the MACD has moved below the neutral level. It has also moved below the important support level at 0.9863.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as focus shifts to the fourth support of the standard pivot point. As such, it will continue falling as sellers target the key support at 0.9500.

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