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EUR/USD Forex Signal: More Downside as Fed Shifts to Cumulative Tightening – 03 November 2022

Economists expect that the economy added more than 200k jobs while the unemployment rate remained at a 50-year low of about 3.6%.


Bearish view

Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.9785.Add a stop-loss at 0.9900.Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

Set a buy-stop at 0.9935 and a take-profit at 1.0100.Add a stop-loss at 0.9850.

The EUR/USD price rose after the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rates. It rose to a high of 0.9967, which was the highest level since October 28. Focus now shifts to the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data.

Fed commits to cumulative monetary policy

The EUR/USD price rose slightly after the Fed concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting. In its statement, the bank decided to hike interest rates by 75 basis points in a bid to fight the rising inflation. It has hiked rates by 375 basis points this year alone.

In its statement, the Fed said that it remained committed to bringing inflation to about 2%. However, the committee said that future hikes will take into account the cumulative tightening of the monetary policy and the lags with monetary policy and inflation. In addition, the bank will continue implementing quantitative tightening policies in the coming months.

In his press conference, Jerome Powell said that the bank will be data-dependent. Therefore, focus shifts to the upcoming US employment and inflation data. The US will publish its non-farm payrolls (NFP) data on Friday.

Economists expect that the economy added more than 200k jobs while the unemployment rate remained at a 50-year low of about 3.6%. Data published on October shows that the private sector added more than 239k jobs in October, higher than the median estimate of 195k.

The EUR/USD pair rose after the relatively weak economic data from Europe. In Germany, exports declined by 0.5% on a MoM basis and by 2.3% on a YoY basis. Additional data showed that Europe’s manufacturing PMI declined to 46.4 as companies focused on elevate energy prices.

The pair will react to a statement by Christine Lagarde of the ECB. She will likely react to what the Fed did and what the ECB will do in the coming months.

EUR/USD forecast

The EUR/USD pair rose slightly but remained in a tight range after the latest decision by the Federal Resere. It was trading at 0.9910, which is slightly below the 50-day EMA on the 4H chart. The RSI has formed a bearish diverge pattern while the price is slightly above the first support of the standard pivot point.

Therefore, the pair will likely resume the bearish trend as sellers target the key support 0.9785, which is along the ascending trendline.

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