Awaiting US CPI data.
My previous EUR/USD signal last Thursday was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the support level I had identified at $0.9847 was first reached.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Trades must be entered before 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $0.9818 or $0.9844.Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $0.9676, $0.9643, or $0.9579.Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair last Thursday, I thought that the price was beginning to consolidate, and the two levels to watch as extremes of the natural currency range were $0.9930 as resistance, and $0.9847 as support.
Regarding a potential breakout, I saw very little chance to the upside – if there was a breakout, it would very likely be a breakdown below $0.9847, so I was ready for a short trade if we got two consecutive lower hourly closes below $0.9847 today.
This was a good call as we did get this breakdown as I suspected we might, but the two consecutive lower hourly closes below that level did not set up until after 5pm London time, so this was not a valid entry signal.
The technical picture now in some ways is more bearish, but despite the strong US Dollar which is boosted by fears of higher rates and recession, the price of this currency pair is reluctant to break below the key support level at $0.9676, and so despite the recent downwards price movement, the price seems to be bottoming out.
This would suggest that a long trade from another bounce at this level could be an interesting trade, but the problem with this is that we are about to get the most important data release of the month in the form of US CPI (inflation) data. It is likely that markets will be very subdued until that release is made, and then there will be some volatility in the US Dollar, making the price action hard to predict at this stage.
The most I can say is that before the CPI release, scalpers may be able to grab a few pips from any bounces at the support level at $0.9676. After the release, the price is likely to travel further, but in an uncertain direction. If the US CPI comes in higher than 0.2%, the price will likely fall; if lower than 0.2%, a rise will be likely.
Concerning the USD, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) data at 1:30pm London time.There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the EUR.