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EUR/USD Forex Signal: Break and Retest Points to More Upside to 1.0300 – 13 September 2022

The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days.


Bullish view

Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2600.Add a stop-loss at 0.9950.Timeline: 1 day.

Bearish view

Set a sell-stop at 1.000 and a take-profit at 0.9900.Add a stop-loss at 1.0100.

The EUR/USD moved sideways in the morning session as the market focused on the upcoming inflation data from the United States and some European markets. The pair was trading at 1.0135, which was slightly below Monday’s high of 1.0200.

US and European inflation data

The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days as investors reflect on last week’s interest rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB). The bank decided to hike rates for the second straight month as concerns about inflation continued. It hiked by 0.75%, the biggest increase since 1999.

Focus now shifts the important inflation data from the US and several European countries. Based on the previous estimate, analysts expect that consumer prices in Germany rose by 7.9% in August as the price of energy remained at an elevated level. The harmonized inflation rate is expected to have risen by 8.8%.

Spain will also publish the final estimate of its August inflation data. Analysts expect that the headline CPI rose to 10.4% on a year-on-year basis and by 0.1% on a MoM basis. The European Central Bank (ECB) believes that the bloc’s inflation will keep rising due to the soaring gas prices.

The other important data from Europe will be the upcoming German economic sentiment data. Analysts expect that sentiment of the German economy deteriorated after Russia decided to cut its natural gas supply.

The most important data on Tuesday will be US consumer inflation data. With gasoline prices dropping, analysts expect that the country’s inflation pulled back in August. Precisely, they expect that the headline inflation dropped from 8.5% to 8.1% in August. Core inflation is expected to have risen from 5.9% to 6.1%. Still, the Fed is expected to maintain its hawkish monetary policy.

EUR/USD forecast

The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days. The pair managed to move above and retest the important resistance level at 1.000, which was the highest point since August 26. It has moved along the upper side of the Bollinger Bands and the 25-day moving average.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been in a bullish trend and is nearing the overbought level. Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the second resistance of the standard pivot point at 1.0300.

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