Dow Jones Technical Analysis: The Index is Finding Some Support – 15 March 2023
Technically, the index benefited from its reliance on the important support level of 31,727.00, which gave it some positive momentum that helped it achieve those recent gains.
The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index report showed that monthly inflation rose 0.4% in February from January, in line with expectations. Annual inflation went down to 6%, the lowest level since September 2021.
Investors were speculating that the Federal Reserve would soon be able to pause the cycle of monetary tightening. Fears mount over the health of the broader financial system following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank SVB and the closure of the signature bank.
Over the past month, market participants built up expectations of a continued rate hike from the Fed after hotter-than-expected economic data on inflation and the labor market. However, those expectations have been quickly reset since Friday.
After the release of the CPI data, the odds of the Fed rate hike expectations have skewed further towards a 25bp hike, with a 74.5% chance of such a hike, while the probability of no rate hike at all is now 25.5%.
Investors have been frightened enough by a series of bank failures, including the biggest bank failure since the financial crisis, that they have shifted bets to a less hawkish Fed than they were betting on just a few days ago. The reason is that the government will have no choice but to ease up a bit on rate hikes, because it had to intervene to restore confidence in finances after rate hikes helped cause banks to fail.
Technically, the index benefited from its reliance on the important support level of 31,727.00, which gave it some positive momentum that helped it achieve those recent gains. To try through it to compensate for part of its previous losses, and at the same time, it tries to drain some of its clear oversold by RSI indicators, especially with the start of the emergence of a positive intersection.
All this comes in light of the index trading along a bearish trend line in the medium term, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily). Negative pressure continued for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50-day period.
Therefore, we expect the index to return to decline during its upcoming trading, especially if it breaks the 31,727.00 support, to then target the support level at 30,454.50.
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