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BTC/USD Forex Signal: Cautiously Optimistic About Bitcoin – 27 October 2022

Bitcoin price has been in a consolidation phase in the past few weeks.


Bullish view

Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 22,000.Add a stop-loss at 19,500.Timeline: 1 day.

Bearish view

Set a sell-stop at 20,000 and a take-profit at 19,000.Add a stop-loss at 21,000.

The BTC/USD price continued surging during the Asian session as volume rose and market volatility eased. It rose to a high of 21,000 for the first time since September 13 of this year. It has jumpd by more than 15% from its lowest level thsi month.

Bitcoin and US dollar divergence

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies staged a strong comeback this week as the US dollar continued dropping. Ethereum rose to $1,562 while the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap moved above $1 trillion for the first time in months.

This comeback coincided with the sharp recovery of American stocks. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices have risen by more than 10% this year and are now moving towards their best month since 2020. In the past, Bitcoin has had a close correlation with these indices.

Meanwhile, the rally also coincided with a sharp decline of the US dollar. The dollar index has crashed from over $115 to about $109 as the greenback fell against most developed country currencies like sterling and euro.

This price action is likely because of the rising hopes that the Fed will start pivoting as soon as in December. Analysts believe that the bank will hike interest rates by 0.75% in November followed by the 0.50% in December. Bitcoin tends to do well in a period when the Fed is turning dovish.

Still, some analysts believe that these gains will likely not hold in the near term. They point to the fact that previous hopes of a Fed pivot have ended in disappointments. For example, stocks and Bitcoin rose a few months ago only to slip as the Fed insisted on more hikes.

Recent data showed that the Fed will start to pivot. For example, housing data published this week showed that the industry is slowing. Consumer confidence also slipped from 108 to 102.

BTC/USD forecast

Bitcoin price has been in a consolidation phase in the past few weeks. This consolidation ended this week as the US dollar index sell-off continued. It rose above the important resistance point at 19,968, which was the highest point on October 13. It also moved above the resistance at 20,460, the highest point on October 5.

The BTC/USD pair moved above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and the second resistance of the standard pivot point. The pair will likely keep rising as buyers target the key resistance at 22,000.

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