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BTC/USD Forex Signal: BTC Extremely Subdued Ahead of Merge – 15 September 2022

The BTC/USD price continued falling as investors readjusted their estimate for the upcoming Federal Reserve actions.


Bearish view

Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 18,000.Add a stop-loss at 21,000.Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

Set a buy-stop at 20,500 and a take-profit at 22,000.Add a stop-loss at 18,000.

The BTC/USD price continued its bearish trend as worries of a tighter monetary policy continued. It dropped below the psychological level of 20,000 as demand for cryptocurrencies evaporated. This price action was also in line with the performance of American stocks as the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices dropped for the second straight day.

Ethereum Merge is happening

The BTC/USD price continued falling as investors readjusted their estimate for the upcoming Federal Reserve actions. Data published on Tuesday showed that US inflation remained at an uncomfortably elevated level in August.

Additional numbers revealed that the country’s producer price index (PPI) continued rising in August. The headline PPI rose by 8.7% while core PPI rose by 7.3%, which was higher than the median estimate of 7.1%.

Therefore, analysts believe that the Fed will continue with its hiking policies when it meets next week. The bank will likely hike interest rates by 0.75%, bringing the total year-to-date increase to 300 basis points.

Bitcoin will react mildly to the upcoming US retail sales data scheduled for Thursday. Analysts believe that retail sales did well in August of this year as the cost of gasoline eased slightly. Still, these numbers, while important, will not have a major impact on the US dollar and BTC.

The other key catalyst that could move the pair will be The Merge, which is expected to happen today. This will be a closely watched event since it will be the most important upgrade to happen in more than a decade. It will see Ethereum move from being a proof-of-work network to a proof-of-stake platform.

As such, there is a likelihood that the BTC/USD price will continue falling after the Merge since the transition has already been priced in.

BTC/USD forecast

The four-hour chart shows that BTC/USD pair has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few days. The decline has coincided with the sharp rally of the US dollar index. It moved below the important support level at 20,000 and below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Awesome Oscillator moved below the neutral point.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key support level at 18,000. The stop-loss for this trade will be at 21,000.

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