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BTC/USD Forecast: Pulls Back Yet Again – 19 October 2022

The BTC/USD pair has fallen a bit during the trading session on Tuesday as Bitcoin continues to be where “money went to die.” We are most certainly in the midst of a major crypto winter at the moment, as there is no enthusiasm here. The $18,000 level underneath continues to offer quite a bit of support, and therefore I think it’s a level that should be paid close attention to. The market has been paying close attention to it for months, so it’s obviously an important place on the chart.

If we were to break down below the $18,000 level, then it’s likely that we would see Bitcoin drop down to the $15,000 level. The $15,000 level underneath could be a small psychological barrier, but at this point I think the market more likely than not will go looking to the $12,000 level. The significance of the $12,000 level is that’s where the last bull run took off from. In other words, we will have done a “round-trip” from that move, which is nothing new for the crypto market.


Bitcoin is far too out on the respective for traders to feel comfortable buying right now, as it looks like everything is falling apart financially. In other words, you need the Federal Reserve to come bail you out if you are bullish on Bitcoin, and therefore you probably don’t have much to do for a while. If you are a CFD trader, then you are going to be looking for opportunities to short this market as there a whole dearth of reasons to think that the market will continue to see plenty of headwinds. The 50-Day EMA above is the first one, but is nowhere near the last.

The US dollar being strong does not help either, because if there is demand for the US dollar, people are not going to be dishing it for Bitcoin. What most Bitcoin traders don’t realize is that they are pricing Bitcoin in US dollars, so what the US dollar is doing is of course very important. This is a market that I think at best go sideways for a while, and does not offer much in the way of hope of a significant rally. Crypto is most certainly in a very negative cycle, and will be until the central banks around the world decide to stop tightening.

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