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BTC/USD Forecast: Continues to Threaten a Drop – 19 September 2022

Pay attention to the US dollar, risk appetite in other assets, and everything else.

The BTC/USD has drifted a little bit lower during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see the US dollar strengthen against almost everything else. The 50-Day EMA currently sits just above current trading, and therefore it makes quite a bit of sense that we would continue to see downward pressure from a technical analysis standpoint.


The $20,000 level of course a large, round, psychologically significant trigger, and therefore it does make quite a bit of sense that we continue to have around this area. It looks like the area offers support down to the $18,000 level. If we were to break down below the $18,000 level, then it opens quite a bit of downward pressure, perhaps sending the Bitcoin market down to the $15,000 level, possibly even the $12,000 level after that. When you look at the $12,000 level, it’s an area that has been important previously, as it is where we launched from during the last bullish run.

Once we get down there, I will be accumulating Bitcoin, but in the short term, it’s very difficult to imagine a scenario where I would get aggressive here.Ultimately, every time we rally there should be a sign of exhaustion that people would get involved with.As far as buying is concerned, we would need to see some type of different attitude coming out of the Federal Reserve, perhaps even the US dollar turnaround. However, from a technical standpoint, if the market were to break above the $25,000 level, that would be very bullish and send Bitcoin much higher.

The 200-Day EMA is sitting right around the $20,000 level and is sloping at this point. The 200-Day EMA is a significant indicator to determine the trend, and a lot of people will pay close attention to it. If we were to break above there, then it probably kicks off a fresh run higher. I highly doubt that happens, and I suspect we are more likely to see $15,000 before we see $25,000. Pay attention to the US dollar, risk appetite in other assets, and everything else. Bitcoin is far out on the risk spectrum; therefore, it needs a “risk on” type of attitude to start getting bullish again. I think more likely than not, we should have an opportunity to pick up a larger position at much lower levels.

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