BTC/USD Forecast: Continues to Drift a Bit Lower
The macroeconomic situation is not good for Bitcoin or other risk assets in general.
In that scenario, I would fully anticipate that Bitcoin could go down to the $15,000 level. Longer-term, we could go down to the $12,000 level. I believe the $12,000 level will be crucial, as it is where the latest bullish move started from. This would be a complete round trip, and I suspect that a lot of people would be willing to jump in at that point. Furthermore, the macroeconomic situation is not good for Bitcoin or other risk assets in general. If the Federal Reserve continues to be very tight with its monetary policy, traders are not going to be looking to take on a lot of risk in that environment.
The 50-Day EMA is continuing to slope lower, and I think that given enough time it will catch up with the price. You could make an argument that we are doing everything we can to form some type of major double bottom, but I just don’t see how that happens. The Federal Reserve is going to continue to get tight, and the ECB raised interest rates 75 basis points during the session, meaning that European traders will probably be much less speculative as well. After all, Bitcoin is a mature asset at this point, and a lot of institutional money is involved. Because of this, it is going to act very much like a mature and traditional market.
The Bitcoin market has had a high correlation to the NASDAQ as of late, so it does make quite a bit of sense that we would see a general malaise. We will get the occasional rally, but those should end up being shorting opportunities until we can break above the $25,000 level, something that we are nowhere near doing at the moment. Pay attention to not only the NASDAQ but the US Dollar Index as well, as it does have a longer-term negative correlation to the Bitcoin market.
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