Until central banks start flooding the world with money again, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where Bitcoin makes any sense.
In a strange twist of irony, the crypto community finds itself hoping the Federal Reserve will bail it out. After all, one of the big attractions the Bitcoin is its limited supply, meaning that people would assume that its value would remain strong as there are only 21 million coins ever going to be mined. However, the first thing that people forget when they have this conversation is that there are probably less than 21 million buggy whips, and because there is a limited supply of those, does not necessarily mean that they are overly valuable.
Until central banks start flooding the world with money again, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where Bitcoin makes any sense. The 50-Day EMA sits just above and is drifting lower. I believe this opens the possibility of a bit of “dynamic resistance” that a lot of people will pay close attention to. Breaking above there would be a very bullish sign, perhaps opening the possibility of a move toward the $24,000 level, maybe even $25,000. We need to break above the $25,000 level to make a serious argument for a bullish case scenario, and even then, I would need to see some type of actual reason for it happening.
The $18,000 level underneath has offered a significant amount of support over the last 6 months or so, but it certainly looks as if the market could very well slip through that level. If it does, that opens the move down to the $15,000 level, followed then by the $12,000 level, where the last bullish run started from. If that area holds, it could end up being a huge consolidation zone. In that consolidation zone, you may get a lot of accumulation, meaning that the so-called “smart money” was getting into the market, and was ready to invest for the longer term. Unfortunately, I think crypto’s got a while to go before it’s remotely interesting, because the large institutional money that pushes Bitcoin around these days has much bigger issues than a pet project like this.