If you have the ability to short Bitcoin easily, you may want to consider doing that every time it rallies.
However, it’s also worth noting that the market is refusing to go higher anytime soon, so I think at this point in time we are going to see more of the same, a yawner of a market. If we were to break down below the $18,000 level, then it’s likely that the market will go much lower, perhaps opening up the possibility of a move down to the $15,000 level. The $15,000 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we might see a little bit of noise. However, once we break down below that level then it opens up the possibility of a move down to the $12,000 level.
The $12,000 level is an area where we have seen the market takeoff from previously, which was the beginning of the last huge bull market. That would be a complete “round-trip” for Bitcoin, something that it has done more than once. I do think that it is probably only a matter time before we see Bitcoin break down rather significantly, due to the fact that there are so many headwinds out there. This is an extraordinarily risk averse environment that we find ourselves in, and I think at this point in time it’s likely that we will continue to see Bitcoin suffer as a result. I think we are a long way from seeing Bitcoin have any type of major bullish run, and I’m simply going to be waiting for a significant breakdown to start scaling in. I believe that is closer to the $12,000 level.
If we did turn around and somehow break above the $25,000 level, then it’s possible that the market could be turning around, but right now I just do not have any scenario in which that happens. If you have the ability to short Bitcoin easily, you may want to consider doing that every time it rallies.