BTC/USD Forecast: Bitcoin continues to Hog the 50 Day EMA
If we start to see rates and the dollar fall, then it’s likely that we will see Bitcoin jump into the mix and go much higher.
It’s worth noting that the $25,000 level continues to offer a significant amount of resistance, and now that we are hanging around the 50 Day EMA. It’s very possible that we will see a bit of a squeeze in this general vicinity. If we break down below the $23,000 level, then it’s possible that we could drop from here. If we drop from here, then I anticipate the BTC/US currency pair could drop down to the $20,000 level. The $20,000 level is an area that will attract a lot of attention due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we have seen support previously. If we were to break down below the $20,000 level, it’s likely that Bitcoin will get cratered.
On a break down below that level, then we are talking about a potential move down to the $18,000 level, followed by the $12,000 level. Alternately, if we were to turn around and take out the $25,000 level, then it’s possible that the $28,000 level will be targeted. Above the $28,000 level, it’s very noisy all the way to at least the $32,000 level. Ultimately, this is a market that has a lot of work to do in order to change the entire trend, and it’s not until we break above that $32,000 level that I would be convinced. Because of this, I think we have more noise than anything else ahead of us.
The Bitcoin market will have a lot of negative correlation to the US dollar and the interest-rate markets, so you need to see whether or not the rates are rising over the dollar strengthening which would work against the value of the Bitcoin markets. However, if we start to see rates and the dollar fall, then it’s likely that we will see Bitcoin jump into the mix and go much higher. In general, I think this is a market that continues to see volatility more than anything else.
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