AUD/USD Forecast: Rallies into Resistance – 07 November 2022

The AUD/USD shot straight up in the air during the trading session on Friday in reaction to the jobs number.This is a bit odd, considering that there was nothing in the jobs report that suggests the Federal Reserve should change its attitude.Perhaps it was a little bit of a relief rally, but we are very close to a significant resistance barrier, so I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before this pair sells off again.

The 0.65 level course has a lot of psychology attached to it, and it is an area where we see noise in the past. Because of this, I think we have a scenario where the market is more likely than not going to pull back, perhaps selling off as soon as Monday. The 50-Day EMA sits there as well, so that’s also something that I would pay attention to, as the market continues to see a lot of volatility in general. The Australian dollar course has its own issues, not the least of which is the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia must deal with a housing crisis.

Commodity markets have a major outsized influence on the Aussie dollar, so that is something that you should keep in mind as well, so therefore if commodity markets remain under pressure, that will pressure this currency. Beyond that, you also must worry about Asia as the Chinese lockdowns continue to cause major problems, and of course, China is Australia’s biggest partner. You cannot trade anything Australia related without paying close attention to China.

There are rumors going around that perhaps the Chinese are going to finally knock off their zero covert policy, but at this point, it is just that, a rumor. With that being the case, it’s likely that the market will probably be setting itself up for disappointment yet again. The “hopium rallies” that we continue to see a bit astounding because quite frankly every time there’s a good new narrative, it ends up being false. It is quite remarkable how gullible some traders have been. We are in a downtrend, and that does not change until we break at least the 0.67 level, and even then, we would have to see some fundamental things change as well.

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