AUD/USD Forecast: Gives Up Initial Surge Higher

The AUD/USD has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but gave bank gain as we continue to see plenty of concerns.The Australian dollar course is a “risk on currency”, so as long as there are concerns around the world from a geopolitical standpoint, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the US dollar gets sold off, and of course, people go looking toward commodity currencies. The Australian dollar is highly beholden to what’s going on in China, as the biggest customer of Australia is China itself, as the markets will continue to pay close attention to the commodity markets.The geopolitical situation continues to see a lot of concerns in both directions, so it’s difficult to imagine where this is going to bring in a lot of risk appetite.

At this point, I think that anytime the market rallies, you need to be thinking along the lines of potentially shorting it. The US dollar continues to get a lot of interest due to the safety aspect, and of course the fact that the interest rates in America keep climbing make it more interesting. Ultimately, the market continues to see a lot of concerns and therefore it does make a lot of sense of people would go into the bond market to get that yield.

Copper markets have been getting crushed, so that of course causes quite a bit of trouble and therefore is likely that we continue to see more downward pressure. The market has been oversold for a while, so it does make sense that we continue to see every time the market rally, there will probably be an attempt to return to the downside. The 0.62 level is significant support, and if we break down below there it’s possible that we could go looking to the 0.60 level.

If we do rally from here, the 0.64 level, followed by the 0.65 level, both offers significant resistance as we had consolidated in that area. Ultimately, this is a market that I will be looking for signs of exhaustion to short, just as we had seen during the trading session on Thursday. I think now, it’s difficult to get overly excited about this market any time soon with so many widespread concerns.

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