By AUD/USD Forecast: AUD Threatening to Break Down – 01 September 2022
This is a market that is dropping due to higher interest rates in the United States and of course the idea that China is slowing down.
The Aussie dollar has given back those gains yet again though, and it does look like we are trying to break through a significant support level. Because of this, if we break down below there it’s likely that we would go down to the 0.67 level, an area that has caused quite a bit of a bounce previously. That being said, the market will more likely than not will find buyers in the general vicinity. If we break down below the 0.67 level, then it’s likely that the market could really start to unwind rather quickly.
If we break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, then I believe that we will look at the 50 Day EMA as a potential barrier, followed right along with the 0.70 level. If we could turn around a break above the 0.70 level, then we could see a bigger move. I don’t necessarily think that is going to be the case, but if that were to happen, it would obviously capture a lot of attention. This is a market that is dropping due to higher interest rates in the United States and of course the idea that China is slowing down. Keep in mind that Australia is highly levered to the Chinese economy, as China is by far Australia’s biggest customer. Regardless, this is a market that I think will be continuing to fade short-term rallies, and with the jobs number coming on Friday, Thursday could be quiet.
Expect a lot of choppy behavior early Friday morning, but I will be paying quite a bit of attention to the jobs number and perhaps more importantly, how this currency pair closes on Friday. That could give us a bit of a “heads up” as to where we go over the next several weeks as this pair looks like it’s building up momentum for something.
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